FAIRMormon welcomes Paul Brooks as a guest blogger.
Paul is from the United Kingdom, runs the website reasonablemormon.com and volunteers at Book of Mormon Central. For a good example of the use of Bayesian analysis in apologetics see G. Bruce Schaalje.
The Probability of Mormonism as Divine
A review
Introduction
“The Probability of Mormonism as Divine” (authored by R. Keith Widdowson and published by CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform) uses the Bayesian probability theory to mathematically assess the hypothesis “Mormonism is divine.” The book concludes that the primary hypothesis has a 30% probability of being true.
The first thing to note is that this level of probability is described as not being worthy of abandoning belief:
According to my findings, given our current state of knowledge, it would be reasonable to be a Mormon believer (1).
Naturally when using Bayes’ Theorem, there is a huge amount of subjective scoring involved. Over the course of the methodology used in the book, over 400 individual scores/decisions are made which all contribute to the final probability.
The two-stage mathematical process used to arrive at the conclusion is well documented and the calculations are all correct, but unfortunately I found the final probability was made quite unreliable due to:
- The sub-hypotheses selected
- The scoring criteria selected
- The evidence selected and conclusions drawn
- The characteristics of God selected
Each of these will be discussed below. [Read more…] about The Probability of Mormonism as Divine